Mohammad Reza Pahlavi

Q&A with former member of IRGC: Guards Could Negotiate with U.S. and Turn Against Khamenei in a Crisis

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Editor’s Note: Amid the escalation of tensions between Iran and the West and the upcoming parliamentary elections, InsideIran’s Reza Akbari conducted an interview with Dr. Seyed Ahmad Shams, a former IRGC political adviser. This is the second part of the interview. Click here to read the first part.

Q: Is there a possibility that the United States government could leave Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei out of the equation and instead negotiate directly with the Revolutionary Guards, just as it negotiated with the Egyptian army before former President Hosni Mubarak’s downfall?

A: The dominant segment in the Revolutionary Guards includes a spectrum of forces with diverging tendencies. I think what some commanders of Revolutionary Guards refer to as “velayat” (Guardianship of the Jurist) does not originate from a deep-seated belief but stems from personal and economic interests that ensure inclusion in the pyramid of power. It is possible that if serious problems arise, this impassioned support will collapse; any threat to these interests can even lead to confrontation with the Supreme Leader. The behavior of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in recent years and his struggle with Khamenei over conflicting interests mirrors perfectly the behavior of other members of Revolutionary Guards in the future if serious problems break out. As Mohammad Nourizad has asserted in one of his letters to Khamenei, “At a time when the country’s system experiences probable changes, individuals such as Hussein Shariatmadari and some chiefs of Revolutionary Guards will be the first to denounce you.”

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Storming Of U.K.’s Embassy Summons Memories Of ’79, But There Are Differences

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Iranian students climb over the wall of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979.

By Golnaz Esfandiari

Fresh images of hard-line students storming a foreign embassy in Tehran can’t help but seem like déja vu. It’s even November, just like before.
Before, of course, was just after Iran’s 1979 revolution, when a group of young people calling themselves “students following of the line of Imam” (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic republic) stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and ended up holding 52 U.S. diplomats hostage for 444 days.

The incident this week in Tehran has inevitably been compared to the events of 32 years ago. But there are differences. The 1979 hostage crisis began spontaneously. What happened on November 29, 2011, seems to have been a calculated move by hard-liners in the regime.

In a statement, the young people who claimed responsibility for the attack on the British Embassy called themselves Muslim Student Followers of the Supreme Leader. They referred to the British Embassy as “another nest of spies” and said the action is just one response to Britain’s recent sanctioning of Iran’s central bank, which they say represents a declaration of war.

A follow-up statement referred to the British Embassy as a “nest of plots” and accused it of playing a key role in organizing and provoking the 2009 postelection protests, which the government brutally supressed.

“Nest of spies” was a phrase heard often in the early years of the postrevolution period — and is still used by some — to describe the U.S. Embassy, which was accused of spying on Iranians.

Deep Distrust

Whereas the 1979 students immediately took hostages in the U.S. Embassy, there is confusion over whether the latest group held six British embassy staffers hostage for several hours. The Mehr news agency first reported that they had, but then removed the report from its website.
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Later, the hard-line Fars news agency said six diplomatic staff who had been under siege during the attack were released by diplomatic police. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said he would not call the six “hostages.”

The storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979, led to the cutting of ties between the two governments, forging a deep distrust that continues to this day.

The consequences of the storming of the British Embassy are not clear yet, but the events have no doubt dealt a serious blow to diplomatic ties between the two countries. British Prime Minister David Cameron has already warned of “further and serious consequences.”

Approval Of Senior Officials?

Tensions between London and Tehran have been rising in recent months over Iran’s refusal to halt nuclear activities deemed suspicious by the West. A recent UN report concluding that Iran has worked to acquire a nuclear weapon led to a rare joint resolution by the P5+1 negotiating group — Russia, China, the United States, France, and Britain, along with Germany — aimed at putting more pressure on Tehran.

The attack on the British Embassy appears to have been a reaction to this growing international pressure on the Islamic republic and follows a vote on November 27 in Iran’s parliament — by a large majority — to downgrade diplomatic relations with the U.K. in response to its new sanctions.