Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal

25 July 2012 6:11 PM

There is a degree of panic, and rightly so, over whether the Syrian tyrant Basher al Assad will use chemical weapons against either his own people or foreign attackers. His regime has this week threatened to do the latter, thus finally confirming what was long suspected but never openly admitted, that Syria possesses chemical weapons. It is believed to have mustard gas as well as nerve agents such as tabun, sarin and VX. The fear is either that the Assad regime uses them or that they fall into the hands of Hezbollah, al Qaeda or other Islamic terrorist groups. Either prospect is utterly nightmarish. Even Russia says it has told Syria it is unacceptable to threaten to use them.

In the last few days, this has been much discussed. What has not been raised, however, is the question of how Syria managed to develop such a chemical weapons stockpile in the first place. No-one in the western media seems remotely curious about how Syria has managed to arm itself to the teeth with them beneath the radar of international scrutiny.

Dr Danny Shoham, at the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, is an expert in chemical and biological warfare. In a Middle East Quarterly article in 2002, Guile, Gas and Germs: Syria’s Ultimate Weapons, he set out the extraordinary history of Syria’s chemical weapons programme.

Analysis: Bandar’s return affirms hawkish turn in Saudi foreign policy

 

By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS | intelNews.org |
For over two decades, America’s relations with its most important Arab ally were primarily mediated by just one man: Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005. But on June 26, 2005, Bandar, a personal friend of the Bush family, submitted his diplomatic resignation, after being recalled to Riyadh by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Almost immediately, Bandar, known for years in Washington’s diplomatic circles as a flamboyant socialite, disappeared from public view. It is said that he faced serious health problems, going in and out of hospitals. Others claim that he fell out of favor with Saudi Arabia’s autocratic ruling elite, and in 2009 there were even unconfirmed reports that he was under house arrest after allegedly trying to organize a military coup against King Abdullah. Last week, however, Bandar returned to the limelight in spectacular fashion: in a plainly worded statement, Saudi authorities announced that the Prince had been appointed Director General of the Mukhabarat Al A’amah, the Kingdom’s main intelligence agency.

German intelligence: al-Qaeda all over Syria

English: Nasser ar-Refai, sheikh of Hawran (Daraa Governorate, Syria) with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Jul 24, 2012
By John Rosenthal

 

German intelligence estimates that “around 90″ terror attacks that “can be attributed to organizations that are close to al-Qaeda or jihadist groups” were carried out in Syria between the end of December and the beginning of July, as reported by the German daily Die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). This was revealed

by the German government in a response to a parliamentary question.

 

In response to the same question, the German government admitted that it had received several reports from the German foreign intelligence service, the BND, on the May 25 massacre in the Syrian town of Houla. But it noted that the content of these reports was to remain classified “by reason of national interest”, Like many other Western governments, Germany expelled Syria’s ambassador in the immediate aftermath of the massacre, holding the Syrian government responsible for the violence.

 

Meanwhile, at least three major German newspapers – Die Welt, the FAZ, and the mass-market tabloid Bild – have published reports attributing responsibility for the massacre to anti-government rebel forces or treating this as the most probable scenario.

 

Writing in Bild, longtime German war correspondent Jurgen Todenhofer accused the rebels of “deliberately killing civilians and then presenting them as victims of the government”. He described this “massacre-marketing strategy” as being “among the most disgusting things that I have ever experienced in an armed conflict”. Todenhofer had recently been to Damascus, where he interviewed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for Germany’s ARD public television.

Syrian Civil War sees increase in combat

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Syrian activists say security forces have attacked rebels in the capital Damascus with helicopters and tanks, while rebels launched an offensive against the government in the northern city of Aleppo.

The activists say government troops used helicopter gunships and tank fire to try to drive rebels out of the Damascus neighborhoods of Barzeh and Mazzeh. Syrian state news agency SANA denied that helicopters were deployed and insisted the capital was “normal” as security forces chased what it called “terrorist” remnants from the streets.

Meanwhile, a rebel commander appeared in an Internet video, announcing that the battle to liberate the commercial hub of Aleppo has begun. Witnesses reported street battles in several districts including Salaheddine and Sakhour.

Elsewhere, Turkish officials said Syrian rebels seized another border crossing between the two countries on Sunday, taking control of the Bab al-Salama complex from Syrian troops. Rebels captured the Syrian side of another crossing (Bab al-Hawa) on the Turkish border last week.

But, Iraqi officials said Syrian insurgents withdrew from the Rabiya border crossing with Iraq overnight, allowing Syrian troops to reclaim it. Rebels remained in control of the Syrian side of the Albu Kamal crossing with Iraq.

Aleppo had been largely untouched by the 16-month uprising against Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assad. It is home to Syrian elites and merchants who have benefited from Mr. Assad’s authoritarian rule, but recently has seen an increase in protests against his deadly crackdown on the rebellion.

Syrian state television broadcast an image of Mr. Assad meeting with his new army chief of staff. It said the Syrian president met General Ali Ayyoub on Sunday and gave him instructions. Mr. Assad promoted his previous army chief of staff to defense minister last week, after a Damascus bomb attack killed the sitting defense minister and three other top security officials.

Syrian Tribal Networks and their Implications for the Syrian Uprising

Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 11

June 1, 2012 05:44 PM Age: 32 min

By: Carole A. O’Leary, Nicholas A. Heras

(Source: Khaled Abdullah Ali Al Mahdi/Reuters)

Sunni Arab tribalism has a significant socio-cultural, political, and security impact on the current uprising in Syria, with strong implications for post-Assad governance formation. Tribalism has fueled unrest throughout Syria, including in places such as Dera’a, where mass opposition demonstrations began on March 15, 2011, in the eastern city of Deir al-Zor on the Euphrates River, and in the suburbs of Homs and Damascus, where some of the fiercest combat between the Syrian military and armed opposition groups has occurred. Millions of rural and urban Syrians express an active tribal identity and tribal affiliation is used extensively to mobilize the political and armed opposition against the Assad government as well as to organize paramilitary forces in support of the Syrian regime. Both the Syrian opposition and the Assad government recognize the political importance of the tribal networks that cross Syria and extend into neighboring countries. As a result, the support of Syria’s tribes is a strategic goal for both the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition.

Tribal Networks – The Social Demographic Impact of Tribalism in Syria

The Syrian Ba’ath Party has traditionally sought to undermine the independence of the country’s tribes through intimidation, infiltration, and dependence. These aggressive policies continued under the Assad government and were exacerbated by decades of economic stagnation and the near total collapse of the rural economy of regions in southern and eastern Syria due to drought, corrupt use of water resources and mismanagement of croplands where many tribesmen resided (Jadaliyya, February 16). In spite of these severe difficulties, tribal networks in Syria are, ironically, better equipped at present to influence the opposition against the Assad government than at any other point in Syria’s modern history.

Over the last several decades, relationships between different tribes have been strengthened by the mutual difficulties that all Syrian tribesmen face, and by a shared bond of kinship and a common Arab-Bedouin heritage that differentiates tribesmen from the ruling Assad family that usurped the power of the Syrian Ba’ath Party. [1] The economic disaster facing tribal youth, combined with the political pressure that is constantly applied by the Assad government, caused Syrian tribes to look to each other for mutual help and support. The traditional vertical authority of the shaykhs over the rest of their tribesmen weakened over time, causing decision-making authority to extend beyond one person (or family) in a specific tribal lineage to mutually supporting individuals in a wider network of tribes. [2] Under coercion from the state, many tribal shaykhs were forced to leave their traditional areas to live quietly in Damascus or Aleppo, or left Syria entirely, becoming remote figures from the perspective of their tribesmen. Without revenues, they became unable to provide for the essential needs of their tribes, particularly during the most recent drought that began in 2003 and lasted through the rest of the decade.

Any Given Friday

A woman stands in the middle of a busy Damascus street. Yellow cabs honk and weave around her. Her red dress, splattered with white paint, flows in the wind along with a red fabric banner held up above her head like a translucent shield. A group of people gathers on the sidewalk to observe as she turns side to side, for all to see. As we watch them watching her through our computer screens, we hear a new sound — not a familiar chant of the revolution, but loud claps of extended applause. When she faces the camera, we finally read her words: “Stop the killing. We want to build a country for all Syrians.”

Her name is Rima Dali, and she stood in protest alone, armed with a red scarf and a powerful message, in front of the Syrian Parliament on April 8. She would be detained for two days for her dissent.

Dali’s action, while brave, would have been easy to disregard as a fleeting incident if it hadn’t happened again, a few days later, in front of the Palace of Justice. And again a few days after that, when more people occupied Dali’s place and even more onlookers clapped from the sidewalk.

Activists like Dali, who had a strong presence at the beginning of the uprising, are trying to rewind Syria‘s clock to the early months of the revolution, when the message of selmiyeh — peaceful — dominated the streets. During the past two weeks, despite the regime’s relentless violence, Syria protested like it was 2011 again.

During the 10-day lull between the announcement of U.N. and Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan’s six-point plan for a ceasefire and its implementation on April 10, violence sharply escalated in Syria — as it usually does before every international ultimatum directed at President Bashar al-Assad. But since then, while shelling and government attacks have continued in certain flashpoints, the daily death toll has decreased significantly. Within opposition circles, another sentiment was brewing even before the ceasefire: a realization that it’s time to reclaim the revolution in order to reclaim the country.

For months, the civic and social activism of these peaceful protesters have been rendered obsolete next to the physical heroics of the Free Syrian Army‘s (FSA) military operations against the regime’s brutality. Peaceful protests in city squares not only seemed impossible, but utterly useless against tanks, shells, and snipers. As armed resistance took its place within the revolution, the nonviolent activists slowly became passive pacifists. In recent days, however, that has changed.

Bashar’s Iron Fist Goes Airborne and Thermobaric

by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi and Oskar Svadkovsky The American Spectator April 2, 2012

Huge balls of fire and mushrooms of smoke seen on the latest videos from Homs indicate that the Syrian army is using more powerful weapons in its assault on the remaining rebel strongholds in the city.

This is what the daily shelling of Homs used to look like when the Baba Amro district was still under rebel control:

February 8, 2012

Explosions seen on the latest videos look rather different:

March 24, 2012

There is an oil pipeline passing through Homs that can produce similar effects when hit with shells. However, it seems unlikely that so many shells would repeatedly hit the pipeline or that the refinery is still operating.

One YouTube video identifies these as napalm bombs. Well, the balls of fire are certainly not entirely unlike videos of napalm bombing that can be found on YouTube. However, napalm is normally delivered with bombs and these are probably thermobaric or fuel-air bombs of the kind the Russians used in Chechnya. Given the regime’s connections to Russia, it comes rather natural that Mr. Putin would share with Bashar Assad his rich experience in waging counter-insurgency in the Caucuses.

March 24, 2012

To the best of our knowledge, the first video starring a fireball in Homs hit YouTube on February 14. By now they have become a regular feature in opposition videos.

February 14, 2012

Though the Syrians usually call them rockets, they actually appear to be shells. At least in the next video some kind of a howitzer exit clearly precedes the shriek and the explosion.

Syria – to break the downward spiral

syria (Photo credit: themua)

March 7th, 2012

It is necessary to consider what role NGOs might now play in Syria– particularly to support the mediation efforts of former UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan – in order to break what seems to be a continual downward spiral, with real dangers of civil war.

By Rene Wadlow

Mid-March 2011 in Syria, nonviolent protests and demands for limited reforms began and then were increasingly met by government violence.  Discussions on what the United Nations could do to help the Syrian people and to speed up necessary reforms started quickly in both New York and Geneva. The appointment of the former UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, as a joint UN-League of Arab States moderator at the end of February 2012 is the most recent efforts as we mark this one-year anniversary.

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have also been concerned, some acting directly – such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) – others as members of the Observer Mission of the League of Arab States. Other NGOs, both Syrian, such as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and international have provided information and have proposed mediation.

It is worth while to analyse these efforts, to outline some of the strengths and weaknesses and to consider what role NGOs might play now to break what seems to be a continual downward spiral with real dangers of civil war, as fighting with heavy weapons continues and flows of arms from outside Syria to the opposition seems to be growing.

10 Questions and Answers: What the U.S. Should Do About Syria

Morgan Roach February 16, 2012 at 4:08 pm

 

An armed Free Syrian Army rebel stands inside a house in the north Syrian city of Binnish on February 15, 2012.

As the violent government crackdown continues in Syria, the United States is faced with a series of questions about what role it should play in the international response. Here are ten questions and answers about the road forward:

Does the U.S. have an interest in the Syrian uprising?

The Assad regime has supported numerous Palestinian, Lebanese, Iraqi, and Kurdish terrorist groups in attacks on Americans and U.S. allies. Furthermore, it has subverted Lebanon’s independence, assassinated its leaders, and blocked Arab peace efforts with Israel, and it remains both a state sponsor of terrorism and Iran’s most important ally. The United States has a strong interest in reducing terrorist threats to Americans and U.S. allies, containing Iran, and shoring up regional stability.

Should the U.S. participate in U.N. peacekeeping?

Earlier this week, the Arab League issued a vague proposal for a joint Arab League/United Nations peacekeeping force to be deployed to Syria. However, there is little peace to keep. As long as the Assad regime and the myriad of opposition groups that it has spawned are locked in a power struggle, no outside force is likely to bring peace. Rather, any outside peacekeeping force would become embroiled in the conflict as a combatant and thereby increase the suffering of the Syrian people.

Talks explore prospects for al-Assad exile

Assad Pictures (Photo credit: upyernoz)”]

[slideshow

03/02/2012– Source
By Caroline Akoum and Sawsan Abo-Husain
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – Following news reports that the US, European and
Arab states have begun discussing the possibility of exile for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian National Council [SNC] Executive Committee member, Ahmed
Ramadan, informed Asharq Al-Awsat that such talks are nothing new, but that
the timing of these talks now – with large parts of the country outside of
al-Assad regime control – will ensure they have a greater impact upon the
Syrian regime and Bashar al-Assad personally.Ramadan told Asharq Al-Awsat that “during the first months of the
revolution, there were at least two countries – one Arab country and one
European country– in talks with al-Assad, and they put forward the idea of
him handing over power and leaving the country. This proposal was previously
discussed by the military leadership affiliated to the regime, most
importantly Maher al-Assad and Assef Shawkat, who opposed this proposal.”
Ramadan added that it is therefore not surprising that similar proposals
should be put forward to the Syrian regime today, particularly as al-Assad
is seeing his forces retreat day after day.
The SNC Executive Committee member also revealed that the SNC has received