Analysis: Bandar’s return affirms hawkish turn in Saudi foreign policy

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By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS | intelNews.org |
For over two decades, America’s relations with its most important Arab ally were primarily mediated by just one man: Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005. But on June 26, 2005, Bandar, a personal friend of the Bush family, submitted his diplomatic resignation, after being recalled to Riyadh by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Almost immediately, Bandar, known for years in Washington’s diplomatic circles as a flamboyant socialite, disappeared from public view. It is said that he faced serious health problems, going in and out of hospitals. Others claim that he fell out of favor with Saudi Arabia’s autocratic ruling elite, and in 2009 there were even
unconfirmed reports that he was under house arrest after allegedly trying to organize a military coup against King Abdullah. Last week, however, Bandar returned to the limelight in spectacular fashion: in a plainly worded statement, Saudi authorities announced that the Prince had been appointed Director General of the Mukhabarat Al A’amah, the Kingdom’s main intelligence agency. Continue reading

Iran News Round Up July 20, 2012

English: Key Petroleum Sector facilities (2004...English: Key Petroleum Sector facilities (2004) Iran (Wall Map) 2004 “Iran Country Profile” Iran map with insets: Population Density, Ethnoreligious Distribution, Key Petroleum Sector Facilities, Southern Caspian Energy Prospects and Strait Of Hormuz (2.5M) (source: CIA map) http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_country_profile_2004… (Photo credit: Wikipedia)A selection of the latest news stories and editorials published in Iranian news outlets, compiled by Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar and Michael Rubin.  .
 
(E) = Article in English

Diplomacy

  • Egypt‘s President Mursi denies entry visas to Iranian citizens
  • Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, temporary Tehran Friday prayer leader, condemns “massacre of Muslims in Myanmar”:
    • “They are killing Muslims in a savage way and the president of Myanmar is doing so by saying ‘We do not consider Muslims as citizens…’ Sometimes a suspicious death happens at a remote place in the world and they start screaming but in this case, they are silent, which makes us believe that the United States is guilty of this crime as well…”
    • “Syria is paying the price of supporting the innocent Palestinians, Hezbollah and the Islamic Iran… The unholy and ominous alliance of the United States, Britain, Europe, the reactionary Arabs, and al-Qaeda, this murderous group and some neighboring countries of Syria, which are dreaming of reestablishing their past empire [Turkey] are behind the crimes… They can’t beat the Syrian people with this terrorist act, just as the Islamic Republic solidly remained in its place after the blast at the office of the Islamic Republican Party.”
    • Discussing arrest of Ayatollah Nimr in Saudi Arabia and suppression of the Shi’a in Bahrain, Khatami continued: “The Khalifa and al-Saud clans should know that an infidel government may survive but injustice is not lasting…”
  • [E] Iran’s embassy in Sofia denied Israel’s allegations about Tehran’s involvement in a terrorist attack in Bulgaria, and stressed Iran’s strong opposition to any kind of terrorist act.

Military and Security

Trade

Iran News Round Up July 17, 2012

Iran extends its railway system to Iraq and Sy...

Iran extends its railway system to Iraq and Syria(01-2007) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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A selection of the latest news stories and editorials published in Iranian news outlets, compiled by Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar and Michael Rubin
 
(E) = Article in English

Politics

Diplomacy

Military and Security

  • Reports on the Revolutionary Guards Navy commanders’ seminar in Mashhad:
    • Ali Fadavi, Revolutionary Guards Navy commander, discusses the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “Although different authorities have made statements on this strategic area, what is important is that the Islamic Republic of Iran is capable of doing what it has said… Start of conflict depends on the degree of stupidity of the Westerners and it seems that they are not pursuing this option [military conflict] and have concentrated all their efforts on economic pressure and sanctions. However, we are prepared to deal with any situation, including their military option.”
    • Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of the General Staff, addresses the seminar of the Revolutionary Guards Navy authorities:
      • “The Revolutionary Guards Navy is today the front line of the defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran…” Continue reading

Iran News Round Up July 19, 2012

Damascus Panorama, Looking Southwards

Damascus Panorama, Looking Southwards (Photo credit: spdl_n1)

Politics

  • According to Iran, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf has stepped up campaigning for presidency. One of the signs is resignation of deputy mayor Mohammad-Hadi Ayazi, Qalibaf’s “right hand,” who is allegedly engaged in organizing the Qalibaf campaign. Pro-Qalibaf websites include: Mard-e Amal, Talayehdar, Hoshdar News, Shafaf News, Farda, Tehran, Farda, Sit-e Hamian-e Doktor, Asheqan-e Doktor Qalibaf, Omid-e Yazdahom and the like. Iran criticizes Qalibaf for being “very close to the reformists.”  

Diplomacy

Military and Security

What to Expect From Mexico’s Election

Enrique Peña Nieto, político mexicano.

Enrique Peña Nieto, político mexicano. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Interviewee: Shannon K. O’Neil, Douglas Dillon Fellow for Latin America Studies

Interviewer: Brianna Lee, Production Editor June 29, 2012

Mexicans head to the polls on July 1 to vote in a presidential election that looks likely to return to power the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ran the government from 1929 to 2000. Polls show PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto in a wide lead over rivals Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and Josefina Vazquez Mota of the center-right National Action Party (PAN), despite the emergence of the “YoSoy132″ student movement that has rallied against the PRI’s legacy of corruption. Peña Nieto’s “rhetoric is that he is from a different generation, it’s a different PRI,” says CFR Mexico expert Shannon K. O’Neil, but, she says, “it’s hard to tell.” The new president will need to accelerate the economy’s “stable but fairly slow growth” and will inherit a violent drug war that has led to increasing insecurity for Mexicans, O’Neil says. On combating the drug cartels, she says that “the focus will probably change, but the actual policies implemented will see a lot of continuity.”

Is it a foregone conclusion that Enrique Peña Nieto is going to win, or is there still room for surprises?

It’s becoming increasingly hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t win. There is still, depending on the polls, roughly 15 percent of the population that says they’re undecided, and for most polls that would be enough of a percentage to change the results, assuming that that whole 15 percent didn’t go to Peña Nieto, but that’s kind of a large assumption.

Continue reading

The Failure of the Moscow Talks – What’s Next?

 

Cascades of gas centrifuges are used to enrich...

Cascades of gas centrifuges are used to enrich uranium ore to concentrate its fissionable isotopes. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

INSS Insight – Asculai, Ephraim: The Istanbul-Baghdad-Moscow talks on Iran’s nuclear program are over. As expected, they did not achieve anything of significance, besides deciding on further, lower level talks. Indeed, the P5 1 and the Iranian delegations shared one objective: they did not want the process to end, thereby necessitating a decision on different tracks. The Iranians are successfully playing for time, as they have done for so many years, and the members of the P5 1 group are also trying to delay any inconvenient decisions, each group member for its own reasons. Most noticeably, the US delegation would like to postpone any major decision until after the November 2012 presidential elections. For their part, the Iranians need time to advance their nuclear program and produce as much enriched uranium as possible. Although according to many reports the sanctions are hurting Iran, they are still not hurting Iran badly enough, and the Iranians are able to bear them.

The ultimate aims of both sides are, of course, diametrically opposite. The Iranians want to retain the capability to enrich uranium to military-grade levels and to gain the ability to produce several nuclear weapons in short order, should the Islamic Republic’s authorities so decide. The Iranian strategy is very simple: they want the world to recognize the legitimacy of the Iranian uranium enrichment program. Even under limited conditions, such recognition would enable Iran to retain its technical capabilities, to perfect the enrichment process, and to leave them a potential for a breakout (defined as the start of the process to produce military-grade enriched uranium), whenever they decide to do so. In addition, the Iranians could well construct concealed facilities and secretly produce enriched uranium to whatever levels they choose to achieve.

The P5 1 want to prevent this possibility, but their remaining options are few. It is nearly impossible to envision the Security Council taking any further action against Iran, because Russia and China would likely vote against it. The first and most probable option for the West (the P5 1 minus Russia and China) is to impose the July sanctions on oil and hope for the best. The next option is to increase the sanctions considerably and wait for the Iranians to blink. The third option is military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

What would the Iranians do? Although the present sanctions have hurt Iran considerably, there are those who think that Iran can shoulder them indefinitely and will therefore continue with its present tactics of preventing a showdown while enriching uranium. Continue reading

The future of the Arab Spring: Islam, Islamism, growing paranoia and future prospects – Part II

English: Map showing the territorial four main...

English: Map showing the territorial four main races/ethnicities/colors of South Africa in 1979: Whites, Coloureds, Blacks and Indians. The gray areas indicate the Apartheid-era Bantustans, which are almost exclusively black. This map is a photoshopped version of the CIA-made original map at Perry Castañeda map collection at the University of Texas website. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Written by Raeesah Cassim Cachalia (1)

Part I of this discussion explored the paranoia around the growth of political Islam after the Arab Spring. The discussion explained many of the issues involving Islam and Islamophobia and where these issues stem from. Continuing from this, part II briefly examines democracy as well as the Islamic state and explains why democracy, as we know it today, should not be the only option considered for regime change in Arab Spring nations.

The flaws and fallacies of democracy

Democracy needs to be evaluated as more than a theoretical ideal but in light of its implementation and track record as well. This is because freedom and justice, among the other values which democracy is meant to entail, do not merely exist in the right to vote or in the existence of a peoples’ constitution. Democracy, at its core, is a system meant for the benefit of the masses. As Archbishop Desmond Tutu said: “…freedom translates into having a supply of clean water, having electricity on tap; being  able to live in a decent home and have a good job; to be able to send your children to school and to have accessible health care. I mean, what’s the point of having made this transition [to democracy] if the quality of life of these people is not enhanced and improved? If not, the vote is useless.”(2) South Africa, despite having come a long way from its Apartheid past, is an example of the distance between democracy in theory and practice.

The past six months have seen a number of South African citizens worked up into a frenzy over Government attempts to impose toll tariffs for the use of major public roads. Government claims the tariff is necessary to cover a large ZAR 20 billion (US$ 2.6 billion) debt accrued for various road projects. In considering why the regular national budget does not cover such expenses, many angrily point to Government corruption along with gross wastage of state expenditure by South African politicians. To name but one example, that of former Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Sicelo Shiceka, we may look at the following official findings regarding the former Minister’s expenditure of state, and thus taxpayers, money in 2011 (keeping in mind that poverty rates are as high as 64% in parts of South Africa with these parts of the population living on less than ZAR 10 (US$ 1) a day):

  • ZAR 546,864 (US$ 71,687) for a personal trip to Switzerland under the pretence of official Government work.
  • ZAR 640,000 (US$ 83,920) in one year spent by the Minister and his immediate staff on one of South Africa’s most costly hotels.
  • ZAR 55,793 (US$ 7,300) for a one night stay for the Minister and a private acquaintance in the same hotel.
  • ZAR 160,000 (US$ 20,975) in eight months for flights for the Minister’s family members (including an “estranged wife and current girlfriend”).(3)

South Africa may be a relatively new democracy, but even established democracies indicate the illusions of this system. Continue reading

Iran News Round Up June 4, 2012

Satellite Image Of Tehran, Iran On 31st Annive...

Satellite Image Of Tehran, Iran On 31st Anniversary Of Iranian Revolution (Photo credit: Talk Radio News Service)

A selection of the latest news stories and editorials published in Iranian news outlets, compiled by Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar and Michael Rubin

(E) = Article in English

Politics

  • Ceremonies held to commemorate the 23rd anniversary of  Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s death end in disorder:
    • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indirectly attacks Ahmadinejad:
      • “If we stop, we will be pushed back. And if we are arrogant, we will be thrown into the ground. If the authorities of the country become preys to egocentrism, arrogance… we will be dealt blows into the mouth. The path of progress is one of ‘no stop.’ We are still on the mountain slopes and there is a distance to the peak. The day when the Iranian nation reaches the peak, the enmities and evils will end…”
    • Ahmadinejad’s speech on the occasion of Khomeini’s death anniversary ends in tumult as the protesters chant slogans against Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei. According to Entekhab, the protesters chanted: “Death to Mashaei,” “Shame on you Mashaei, leave Ahmadi[nejad] alone,” “This entire army has come for the sake of the Leader [who addressed the crowds before the president."
    • As Hojjat al-Eslam Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, tried to deliver his speech, the crowds chanted slogans against him: "Death to the opponent of the Guardianship of the Jurist," "The blood in our veins is a gift to our Leader," "We are not citizens of Kufa so that the Imam would be alone," "This entire army has come for the sake of the Leader."
  • Rafsanjani, addressing a group of students from Azad University, attacks Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah Yazdi:
    • "Relying on the people and irreplaceable role of the people in historical events is extremely important. Extremism, on the other hand, is one of the pests dealing blows to the goals of the Islamic revolution. The path of moderation and renunciation of extremism have led to the progress of the revolution. But unfortunately we on some occasions witness some people who did not believe in the struggle against the Shah, or considered that futile or unnecessary, today directly or indirectly lead extremist and radical groups and present solutions [for the problems] of the country.”
      • Mesbah Yazdi responds to Rafsanjani’s attack while addressing a group of Revolutionary Guards members from the Imam Ali Center of the Guards based in Isfahan: “At the time of the revolution, there were people who did not consider the Imam [Khomeini] as the ideologue of the revolution and solely considered him an instrument to overthrow the Shah… After the revolution, some of these people gained access to important positions in the regime and are now bidding their time as well… There are today some who are trying to monopolize the revolution to the benefit of their own interests…”

Diplomacy

Military and Security

  • Khamenei: “The noise and threats that authorities of the usurping Zionist regime make against Iran are because of their fear, terror and powerlessness… The heads of the Zionist regime know that today they are more vulnerable than ever. Any incorrect move of theirs will strike their own heads like lightening…”

Continue reading

The Undiplomat

Obama’s ambassador to Moscow has gotten a rude welcome in Putin’s Russia. But he’s not going to take it anymore.

BY JULIA IOFFE | MAY 30, 2012

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MOSCOW — This winter, Michael McFaul discovered a number of surprising things about himself. He was imposing odious American holidays, like Valentine’s Day and Halloween, on the Russian people. He personally whisked Russian opposition politician Alexey Navalny out of the country to Yale on a fellowship. He was inviting opposition figures to the U.S. Embassy “to get instructions.” And he was a pedophile. Or so his online tormentors claimed.

 

This was McFaul’s welcome to his new job: United States ambassador to Russia. Along with being attacked on state television and having picket lines across from the embassy, he was being followed — and harassed — by a red-haired reporter from NTV, the state-friendly channel. One day, a horde of activists from Nashi, a pro-Kremlin youth group, showed up at the embassy gates in white jumpsuits, and played dead: They did not want to be the victims of a revolution, like the unfortunates of Egypt, their posters said. As a result, the ambassador’s security had to be tightened.

“What I did not anticipate, honestly, was the degree, the volume, the relentless anti-Americanism that we’re seeing right now,” McFaul told me in February, a note of real hurt ringing in his normally chipper, measured voice. “That is odd for us. Because we have spent three years trying to build a different relationship with this country.” He added, almost stuttering, “I mean, I’m genuinely confused by it.”

A month later, he lost it.

The explosion came when McFaul arrived at the office of For Human Rights, an NGO in Moscow’s historic center. He was going to see his old friend, veteran human rights activist Lev Ponomarev, whom he’d known since he was an international studies graduate student running around perestroika-era Moscow. It may have been late March, but it was cold and the stuff that fell from the sky was neither snow nor rain: a long cry from McFaul’s California home. As ambassador, though, he didn’t have to bother with a jacket: he had his black Cadillac.

Had he known that the redhead from NTV would again be waiting for him with a camera crew, however, he may have dressed a little warmer.

What was McFaul going to discuss with Ponomarev?, the redhead asked as the camera bounced to follow the moving ambassador.

“Your ambassador moves about without this, without you getting in the way of his work,” McFaul said in slightly crooked Russian. He was clearly angry but maintained a wide, all-American smile. “And you guys are always with me. In my house! Are you not ashamed of this? You’re insulting your own country when you do this, don’t you understand?”

Continue reading

Iran News Round Up May 31, 2012

Dr. A.Q. Khan's designed the centrifuges loose...

Dr. A.Q. Khan’s designed the centrifuges loosely based on Zippe-type gas centrifuges. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

A selection of the latest news stories and editorials published in Iranian news outlets, compiled by Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar and Michael Rubin
(E) = Article in English

Politics

  • Ahmadinejad addresses newly elected parliamentarians:
    • “The cabinet never intervenes in the work of the legislature… Tomorrow you will enter the parliament and you will appoint the committees. The chairman, deputy and other positions are all within your capability. We believe in this. We do not have an egoistic, politicizing view attempting to recruit and mobilize or to engage in factionalism… There is a division of labor… Why did the revolution take place? Was the purpose to elect some executives from the southern [poorer] parts of town, the villages and distant places to come to live in northern Tehran? When these people came to office, they did not have any money for their daily needs, but they have become billionaires, factory owners and merchants. Was this the purpose of the revolution…? The head of the chief inspectorate does nothing but shouting insults against the cabinet. And when it comes to the parliament, it is not answerable to anyone but God Almighty. This is also apparent in our constitution, which may be a fault… God forbid the day when people say about elected officials: ‘Such a pity; what we wanted and what we get.’”
  • Hojjat al-Eslam Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, says he will not run for president in 2013. He said this while participating at the funeral of brother of Mohammad Mousavi Khoeinihain Tehran

Military and Security

Nuclear Issue

Continue reading