SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 10, No. 39, April 2, 2012

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal ASSESSMENT · INDIA: Maoists: Enduring Strengths - Ajai Sahni · INDIA-SRI LANKA: Disgrace - Ajai Sahni INDIA Maoists: Enduring Strengths Ajai Sahni Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management & SATP In quick succession, three disruptive incidents have shocked India out of the complacency that had set in, as the policy establishment celebrated sharp declines in violence and fatalities engineered by the Communist Party of India – Maoist (CPI-Maoist), over the past year. The worst of these incidents was, of course, the March 27, 2012, improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) transport at Pustola in Gadchiroli District, Maharashtra, which killed 12 and injured 28. In their enthusiasm during CRPF Director General Vijay Kumar’s visit to Fulbodi Gatta to inspect a Community Outreach Programme, the troopers had ignored standard operating procedures (SOPs), driving over a road that had not been sanitized in advance. The Maoists were quick to take bloody advantage. A loss of lives among SF personnel, however, is easily ignored and quickly forgotten by the Indian state. The abduction of foreigners and the inevitable international media carnival that follows, tends to be far more embarrassing, for much longer, especially when the ‘hostage drama’ extends over weeks. The ‘arrest’ as the Maoists chose to describe it, of two Italians – a tourist and a tour operator – on March 14, 2012, in the Daringbadi Block of Kandhamal District, Odisha, has, consequently, shattered the illusion of an ‘improved internal security situation’ to a far greater extent. While one of the hostages, Claudio Colangelo, was released on March 25, 2012, the second, tour operator Paulo Basusco, continues to be held hostage by the rebels at the time of writing. The abduction occurred while the Italians were moving in areas of Maoist influence, officials claim, against the advice of the administration. Even as the Italian hostage drama was being played out, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), tribal leader Jhina Hikaka, from the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), was abducted on March 24, 2012, near Laxmipur in Koraput District, Odisha, when he chose to ignore security procedures, to travel through Maoist dominated territories from Semilguda to his constituency, Laxmipur. Hikaka’s vehicle was stopped near Toyaput, and he was abducted after he identified himself. The Basusco and Hikaka abductions remain unresolved at the time of writing. Crucially, all three actions were incidents of opportunity, reflecting enduring Maoist capacities, rather than strategic intent or planning, and demonstrating quite clearly that a decline in fatalities is not synonymous with a decline in rebel capacities or with an improvement in the ‘security situation’. Indeed, despite the significant reverses inflicted on the Maoists, especially at the leadership level, as well as some contraction in their areas of operation, the rebels’ disruptive capabilities in their core areas along the purported ‘Red Corridor’, remain substantially intact.

David Cameron faces backlash over ‘big brother’ powers to watch you on the web

New powers: GCHQ headquarters in Cheltenham

“Unprecedented intrusion into our lives” – Nick Pickles, director of Big Brother Watch

02 April 2012

David Cameron is facing a growing backbench backlash over plans for a major expansion of the Government’s powers to monitor the email exchanges and website visits of every person in the UK.

Under legislation expected in next month’s Queen’s Speech, internet companies will be instructed to install hardware enabling GCHQ – the Government’s electronic “listening” agency – to examine “on demand” any phone call made, text message and email sent, and website accessed, in “real time” without a warrant.

A previous attempt to introduce a similar law was abandoned by the former Labour government in 2006 in the face of fierce opposition from the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as well as civil liberties groups.

Senior MPs from both coalition parties have lined up to condemn the move by ministers to revive plan, denouncing it as an unnecessary extension of the state’s powers to “snoop” on its citizens.

The Home Office argued that the measure was “vital” to combat terrorism and organised crime and stressed a warrant would be needed in order to access the content of the communications they were monitoring.

However that did little to allay the concerns of critics who said the authorities would still be able to trace who people were in contact with and how often and for how long they were communicating.

Iranian and Hezbollah Terrorist Attacks against Israeli Targets Abroad

The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center

February 19, 2012

 

Iranian and Hezbollah Terrorist Attacks against Israeli Targets Abroad
The Situation on the Ground and Background Information ¹
(February 15, 2012)

 

---

Overview

1. For the past half year (May 2011-February 2012) Iran and Hezbollah have organized and carried out a terrorist campaign against Israeli targets abroad. So far six attacks have been attempted in five Asian countries, four in sequence (Turkey, Azerbaijan, twice in Thailand) and two simultaneously (India and Georgia). Several methods were employed, the most conspicuous of which, according to information made public so far, was the attaching of a magnetic explosive device to a vehicle (or vehicles) mainly used, in our assessment, by representatives of the State of Israel.

2. Iran (through the Quds Force and other apparatuses linked to the regime) conducts a global terrorist campaign against countries and individuals it perceives as its enemies: the United States and the West, Israel and the Jewish people, Saudi Arabia and other pro-Western Arab countries, and Iranian and foreign figures who oppose the Iranian regime. Hezbollah and foreign operations apparatus serve as the main Iranian proxy, handled by the Iranians for subversion and terrorism in the Middle East and around the globe. Both the Iranians and Hezbollah repeatedly and strongly deny involvement in terrorism and subversion around the globe.

MCIS Yearbook 2012

These case studies underscore the ability of social networking to do three things: (a) reflect opinion trends and channel mass political action; (b) provide actionable tactical intelligence; and (c) enable highly effective —and highly controversial— security operations against targeted groups. The paper is published in the 2012 Intelligence Studies Yearbook

http://www.rieas.gr/images/mcis2012.pdf

Iran Daily Brief February 9, 2012 – Full Report

Image via Wikipedia

International Affairs

Khamenei: Islamic Revolution source of inspiration for all revolutions – Addressing Iranian Air Force personnel, Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran did not claim the Islamic Awakening in the region was initiated by Iran. However, he stated, “no one can ignore the fact that the waves of Islamic Awakening have been inspired by the victory of Islamic Revolution”. He underlined that the latest developments in the region and the Islamic Awakening proved that the Iranian nation is moving in the right path and that the Islamic Revolution has flourished and is dynamically moving forward towards its goals, 33 years after its victory. Ayatollah Khamenei added that slogans of the Iranian nation have prevailed over the region and the nations following global arrogance have now stood by Iran pursuing the same goals.

Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Iran holds the key to the fate of the US president and government – Brigadier General Seyyed Mas’ud Jazayeri said that “Many high level strategic experts believe that the key to the American government is in Tehran’s hands. Thus the ridiculous dance of both war-mongering and peace-making of the White House are meaningless… Iran pays no attention to this ludicrous carrot-and-stick policy and instead thinks about its own ideals and aims.” Jazayeri added that Iran pursues its objectives and causes without considering the US carrot and stick policy adding that Washington’s message of peace or war is worthless to Tehran and lacks meaning for policymaking. He said that the US and the Zionist regime (Israel) are not capable of taking military action against Iran because they know how vulnerable they are to Tehran’s retaliatory measures. Moreover, The US government is in such a pathetic situation that even their people hold street protests against the exploitative nature of the country’s governing system and chant slogans in support of the Islamic Republic.

2 Libyans Suing MI6 Ex-Director Over Rendition

Image via Wikipedia

By SYLVIA HUI Associated Press

LONDON January 31, 2012 (AP)

Two Libyans who claim that British spies were involved in their torture and rendition are launching legal action against the former director of counterterrorism at the U.K.’s foreign spy agency, lawyers representing them said Tuesday.

Abdel-Hakim Belhaj and Sami al-Saadi, both opponents of Moammar Gadhafi‘s regime, claim that MI6 ex-director Mark Allen was complicit in torture and want to examine his role in their renditions to Libya. They have sent a letter of claim to Allen to seek his response to the allegations, and to claim damages from him personally for the trauma they said they suffered.

“We are taking this unusual step of preparing a legal action against an individual as the documents we have in our possession suggest Sir Mark was directly involved in the unlawful rendition of our clients and their families,” said Sapna Malik of Leigh Day & Co., who is representing the Libyans.

The men are also launching legal challenges against Britain’s spy agencies, the Foreign Office, and the Home Office, the law firm said.

Belhaj, Tripoli’s military council commander and a former fighter in the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group which had opposed Gadhafi, claims both British and U.S. intelligence may have played a role in his 2004 detention in Thailand’s capital Bangkok and transfer to Tripoli.

His accusations are based on a document uncovered during the fall of Tripoli that allegedly contained a message from Allen referring to his rendition. The message, dated March 2004, was purportedly addressed to Gadhafi’s former intelligence chief, Moussa Koussa.

PM – Iranian assassination bears all the hallmarks of Mossad 13/01/2012

Suzanne Hill reported this story on Friday, January 13, 2012

BRENDAN TREMBATH:An United States intelligence and security expert says it’s unlikely the US was involved in this week’s assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist. Iran has blamed both the US and Israel.

Iranian news reports say Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed on his way to work in Tehran. A motorcyclist attached a bomb to his car.

Dr Joseph Fitsanakis is an Iran watcher, and coordinator of the Security and Intelligence Studies programme at King College in Tennessee. He’s told Suzanne Hill that the assassination is probably the work of Israel’s spy service.

JOSEPH FITSANAKIS: The assassination fits the character of the Mossad, going back all the way to 1960s with Operation Damocles when the Israelis actually went so far as assassinating German scientists working with Egypt in Egypt’s nuclear program.

Some people mention that there are other agencies that have similar operational character like the Russians, for instance, the Russian secret services but the Russians are allies of Iran.

The Chinese have been mentioned as well but, again, even though they’re pretty capable, they don’t have that type of operational character.

SUZANNE HILL: When we talk about operational character, are you referring only to Mossad’s predisposition to assassinate as we assume they have or are you referring to other things to do with the assassination itself in which we can see hallmarks of Mossad?

JOSEPH FITSANAKIS: I think both. In particular, assassination operations are very, very risky. They’re very complex, involve a large number of individuals, they’re very carefully planned.

Turkey’s Intelligence: “We have established an original new structure’

• 

  Image via Wikipedia

  Published : 09.01.2012 19:43
  Updated : 09.01.2012 22:04

Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) is setting up an Electronic Intelligence Village on a 3,000 square meter plot of land, which will allow for the tracking of all forms of intelligence signals.

MİT Undersecretary Hakan Fidan explains that within the next two to three years, they aim to become one of the largest intelligence services in the world and that they are synthesizing the CIA-FBI model.
Yesterday, the “Meeting with the Press” portion of a series of ceremonies held to commemorate to 85th anniversary of the National Intelligence Organization, or MİTs founding, was held at the undersecretariat headquarters.
At the event, which brought together the executive editors and Ankara representatives from newspapers and television stations, MİT Undersecretary Hakan Fidan, announced their objective to become one of the top ten intelligence services, to undergo a restructuring in terms of both internal and foreign intelligence and that they are synthesizing the United States’ CIA-FBI model. Fidan stood up for the organization, which has faced intentions of being drawn into the Uludere incident, by sharing their goals for “Perfection and Competitive Pursuit.”
OBJECTIVE TO BECOME TOP TEN: “We have always been told “You are very good in your region, Turkey is a shining star.” However, we do not consider this to be enough. With the exception of a few countries in this region, this is not an area where there are first class players. We want to become players in the global realm. There are ten intelligence services in this realm, within the next two to three years; we will become one of them.”
FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM: “We are preparing a joint intelligence program. Under the headline “Security Intelligence”, we have reestablished our units dealing with terrorism doth domestically and abroad. We have created units that will primarily deal with armed terror as well as an analysis unit that will also be dealing with terrorism.”

INTELLIGENCE VILLAGE: “The General Staff Electronic Systems Command has been handed over to the MİT. A 3,000 square meter plot of land was purchased next to the Electronic Systems Command (GES) facility.
We are building an Electronic Intelligence Village there that will be befitting of the 21st century. 21. This is a historical step in terms of military-civilian collaboration. Turkey has now been saved from the wasted resources and effort as well as from duplication and has obtained the opportunity to visualize our national capacity. All signal intelligence directed towards our region will be tracked and evaluated from here.”
UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE VISUALS ARE NOT OURS: “The visual intelligence obtained from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles is obtained by the General Staff and not MİT.”

From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard

A serious split is developing within Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard. The West must leverage that split in support of regime change before the Islamic Republic successfully tests nuclear weapons.

Members of Iran’s paramilitary Basij force, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, attend a rally in front of the former US Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 25, 2011.
(AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

---

By Reza Kahlili
posted January 4, 2012 at 11:56 am EST

Los AngelesA serious split is developing within Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, with one faction favoring the overthrow of the dictatorial regime. This presents a window of opportunity for the West to support regime change before the Islamic Republic successfully tests nuclear weapons. Once the regime has those nuclear bombs, that opening will be much narrower.

Iran has tried hard to show strength in the face of sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran to quit its suspected nuclear-bomb and missile development programs. Iranian leaders are now flexing their military muscles in the strategic waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to shut it down and choking off a major part of the world’s oil supply.

The regime has long tried to scare the West from taking any action against it, by threatening the world’s security and stability. However, behind its mask of strength and unity, big cracks are beginning to show.

Spies trying to disrupt Iran’s upcoming elections arrested: Moslehi

Tehran, Jan 8, IRNA – Intelligence Minister Hojjatoleslam Heydar Moslehi announced the arrest of several spies who, in line with the plots of the US government, wanted to disrupt the upcoming Ninth Majlis (Parliament) elections slated for March 2.

Hojjatoleslam Moslehi made the remarks among reporters at the end of a cabinet meeting in Tehran on Sunday.’Our intelligence apparatus had complete information about the activities of the arrested spies,’ he added.

The minister pointed out that the detained spies were trying to execute the plots of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) through social networks and cyberspace to disrupt the process of the upcoming Ninth Majlis (Parliament) elections.